Se acelera el crecimiento del precio de la vivienda en España

Inmobiliaría en Los Cristianos.

De los 100 euros que ha subido el metro cuadrado en dos años, 63 euros corresponden a 2017 frente a los 37 de 2016.

El valor medio de una vivienda en España se sitúa en 1.532€/m2.

Barcelona, Baleares y Madrid son las provincias que encabezan las subidas con una oscilación anual de 10,2%, 7,5% y 6,9% respectivamente.

El índice de confianza inmobiliario evoluciona positivamente en el primer trimestre del año, alcanzando los 57,7 puntos sobre la base 100.

Comienza a recuperarse el índice de confianza en Cataluña durante el primer trimestre de 2018, situándose en 56,7 puntos frente a los 56,2 registrados en diciembre.

Cae ligeramente la capacidad de endeudamiento de los españoles para acceder a una vivienda, situándose en 103 puntos respecto a los 107 puntos del año anterior.

El índice de esfuerzo sube ligeramente y se sitúa en 7,5 años de sueldo íntegro para adquirir una vivienda de tipo medio en España.

La rentabilidad del alquiler se sitúa en 8,2% en el primer trimestre de 2018.  Un 7,6% más que el mismo periodo del año pasado.

Sociedad de Tasación publica el Informe de Tendencias del Sector Inmobiliario, que incluye la evolución de precios de la vivienda correspondiente al segundo semestre de 2017.

El informe incorpora nuevos indicadores de rentabilidad de los alquileres y el riesgo inmobiliario por provincias elaborados por Urban Data Analytics (uDA), socio tecnológico de Sociedad de Tasación.

Según el informe de  Sociedad de Tasación, el precio medio de la vivienda en España experimentó un incremento del 4,3% de promedio anual, situándose en 1.532 €/m2En la segunda mitad del 2017, el precio medio de la vivienda en España aumentó un 2,3%.

Así, por provincias, Barcelona experimentó un aumento anual del 10,2%, seguido de Baleares con una subida del 7,5% y Madrid con 6,9%. Por el contrario, Teruel ha sufrido una bajada del 1,3% seguido de cerca por Segovia que cae un 1,1% y CuencaSoria y Zamora que registraron las tres caídas del 1% respectivamente.

Según el Informe, el precio medio más elevado en el segundo semestre de 2017 se ha registrado en la provincia de Barcelona (2.405 €/m2), seguida de Guipúzcoa (2.355 €/m2), mientras que los más bajos se dan en Badajoz (843 €/m2) y Ciudad Real (849 €/m2).

Por Comunidades Autónomas, en el último año los mayores incrementos anuales se han producido en Cataluña con un incremento anual del 8,7%, seguida de Baleares con una subida del 7,5% anual yMadrid que registró una subida del 6,9 %.  Por el contrario, los menores incrementos anuales se registran en Castilla y León y Murcia, sendas comunidades registraron un incremento 0,3%, seguida de Castilla la Mancha con un incremento del 0,4% y Asturias con una subida del 0,6%.

En cuanto a la evolución semestral por Comunidades Autónomas, según Sociedad de Tasación, todas han experimentado un aumento en los precios de vivienda con la excepción de Murcia donde se registra una caída del 0,1%. Encabezan dicho crecimiento semestral, Cataluña un 4,7%, Baleares, un 4,3% y Madrid, un 3,8%.

Como podemos ver, el segundo semestre de 2017 se ha caracterizado por un incremento estable y generalizado de los precios de la vivienda en España. Si bien las variaciones de precios no son idénticas en el caso de la vivienda nueva y usada, en el gráfico mostrado arriba se puede apreciar que se trata de una tendencia estable.

Ahora bien, si ponemos el foco en los últimos dos años y analizamos la evolución de los precios desde el año 2016, tal y como muestra el gráfico de abajo, se puede observar cómo el precio de la vivienda en España acelera su crecimiento de manera constante desde abril de 2016 hasta abril de 2018. Así, la variación anual de precios pasa de un 2,5% en abril de 2017 a un 4,3% en abril de 2018. En efecto, si nos fijamos en el precio del metro cuadrado, en dos años se ha encarecido 100 euros, pasando de 1.433€/m2 a 1.532 €/m2, de los cuales la mayor subida se produjo en 2017, 63 euros frente a los 37 euros en 2016.

Aumenta la confianza en el sector durante el primer trimestre

El Índice de Confianza Inmobiliario de Sociedad de Tasación mantiene en este primer trimestre de 2018 su tendencia al alza, registrando una subida de 0,9 puntos, hasta colocarse en 57,7 puntossobre un máximo de 100 frente a los 56,8 puntos a cierre de 2017. El índice alcanzó su valor más bajo de la serie histórica, 30,6 puntos, en diciembre de 2012.

Por Comunidades AutónomasMadrid, Canarias, Baleares y Asturias superan los sesenta puntos y se sitúan en 63,6; 62,5; 61,9 y 60,1, respectivamente. A continuación, las comunidades en un segundo nivel con respecto a las expectativas de evolución del sector son la Comunidad Valenciana con 58,5 puntos y el País Vasco, con 58. Por contraposición, Cantabria con 52,4, Castilla y León 53,6 y Castilla-La Mancha 53,3 presentan los valores más bajos. Destaca Cataluña que se recupera levemente y se sitúa en 56,7 puntos respecto a los 56,2 puntos del pasado mes de diciembre.

Este índice se construye a partir de la opinión de más de 700 profesionales sobre aspectos económico-inmobiliarios de las zonas donde desarrollan su actividad profesional.

7,5 años para adquirir una vivienda

El Índice de Esfuerzo Inmobiliario de  Sociedad de Tasación, que define el número de años de sueldo íntegro que un ciudadano medio necesita destinar para la compra de una vivienda de tipo medio, no presenta cambios significativos y se mantiene en 7,5 años en el primer trimestre de 2018, ligeramente superior a los registrados en el mismo periodo de 2016 y 2017.

Este indicador se calcula a nivel de Comunidad Autónoma a partir del cociente entre el valor de mercado de la vivienda y los ingresos medios brutos anuales que publica el INE en su encuesta anual de estructura salarial. Baleares continúa siendo la Comunidad Autónoma donde se necesitan más años para acceder a una vivienda 14,9 años, un aumento del 0,6. Por el contrario, La Rioja es la región donde es más fácil acceder a la vivienda, con 4,8 años de sueldo íntegro, seguida de Murcia con 4,9 años.

Disminuye levemente la capacidad de endeudamiento para adquirir una vivienda

El Índice de Accesibilidad elaborado por  Sociedad de Tasación retrocede en el primer trimestre del año. Con una referencia de 100 puntos en los casos donde la capacidad de endeudamiento es suficiente, la media de España en el primer trimestre de 2018 se ha situado en los 103 puntoscuatro puntos por debajo que el mismo periodo del año anterior y tres puntos por debajo del trimestre anterior. La media estatal se mantiene por encima del nivel salarial mínimo para la adquisición de una vivienda de tipo medio, sin embargo, registra una leve caída por tercer trimestre consecutivo.

Por comunidades autónomas, Madrid con 94, Cataluña con 91 y Baleares con 52 puntos, continúan registrando niveles insuficientes para la adquisición de una vivienda, al igual que en el primer trimestre del año anterior.

La rentabilidad media del alquiler sigue creciendo en el primer trimestre de 2018

Desde la edición pasada, Sociedad de Tasación incorpora a su estudio el análisis de rentabilidad del alquiler por provincias. El Informe incluye indicadores de rentabilidad del alquiler, desarrollados por Urban Data Analytics (uDA), socio tecnológico de Sociedad de Tasación, que estudia el mercado residencial para predecir tendencias y conocer el comportamiento de las provincias frente a la inversión. SegúnUrban Data Analytics (uDA), la rentabilidad media en el alquiler por provincias en nuestro país alcanza el 8,2% en el primer trimestre de 2018, lo que supone un crecimiento anual del 7,6%.

Por provincias, destacan las rentabilidades medias brutas del alquiler durante el primer trimestre de 2018 en Barcelona, con un 8,72%, Lleida con un 8,45%, y Valencia con un 8,11%. Por el contrario, las provincias que presentan rentabilidades medias más bajas en el primer trimestre de 2018 son Guipúzcoa con un 4,93%, seguida de Vizcaya con un 5,2% y A Coruña también presenta un 5,2%.

En la comparativa anual, destaca el crecimiento de Santa Cruz de TenerifeValencia y Sevilla que presentan unas rentabilidades anuales del alquiler de 16,2%, 16,7% y 17,7% respectivamente respecto al año anterior. Por el contrario, destaca el caso de las Islas Baleares que presentan una variación anual negativa -3,2% del rendimiento de los alquileres, debido principalmente al incremento de los precios de compraventa, muy por encima de los del alquiler.

La opción de compra destinada al alquiler sigue siendo una opción de inversión muy atractiva, siendo Madrid, Valencia y Sevilla las que presentan el mejor comportamiento en cuanto a rentabilidad del alquiler y riesgo inmobiliario a diferencia de Huelva, Ávila y Teruel que presentan mayor riesgo, tal y como muestra el gráfico.

Conclusiones

La variación positiva experimentada en los últimos cinco semestres confirma la senda de la recuperación de los precios iniciada en 2015. Sin embargo, como ya se ha apuntado anteriormente, lo más significativo es que los porcentajes de aumento son ligeramente superiores a los experimentados en el informe de hace seis meses. Sobre este hecho, cabe destacar que en los últimos dos años se ha producido una aceleración progresiva en el crecimiento del precio de la vivienda pasando de un 0,3% anual en el segundo trimestre de 2016 a un 4,3% en el primer trimestre de 2018.

En este sentido, desde Sociedad de Tasación alertamos de una aceleración en el crecimiento de los precios de la vivienda que habrá que seguir de cerca. Paralelamente, tal y como venimos diciendo desde hace tiempo, la doble velocidad en la evolución de los precios de la vivienda en el territorio nacional, con grandes diferencias entre ciudades, sigue siendo la nota predominante.

Por último, cabe destacar que la modalidad de alquiler sigue cobrando importancia. Así, la rentabilidad media del alquiler en España sigue experimentando un crecimiento constante del 7,6% respecto al año pasado, liderado por Sevilla, Valencia, Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

Metodología

Sociedad de Tasación ha realizado este análisis aplicando técnicas de big-data, a partir de la información de las valoraciones y datos de mercado contrastados y verificados procedentes de su amplia base de datos inmobiliaria, para generar series de evolución histórica del precio de la vivienda para todos los códigos postales de España.

En la metodología de trabajo utilizada se prescinde de aquellos datos cuyo valor presenta distorsiones a causa de singularidades en las características del inmueble. Dado que la cantidad de datos localizados no es ilimitada ni las características físicas y de ubicación son homogéneas entre un periodo y otro, la aplicación de técnicas de este nivel permite minimizar el riesgo de oscilaciones imputables a las variaciones en cantidad y condiciones de las muestras entre dos periodos consecutivos.

ST Sociedad de Tasación ha analizado el comportamiento de los precios de la vivienda durante el segundo semestre de 2017 y pone a disposición del mercado una serie histórica única en España, con datos que se remontan a 1985.

ST Sociedad de Tasación es una empresa independiente experta en valoraciones de todo tipo de bienes, especialmente activos inmobiliarios. Creada en el año 1982 es la primera sociedad de tasación nacida en España, ha realizado más de tres millones de tasaciones con un valor tasado superior a los dos billones de euros. Es líder en la generación de información y estadísticas inmobiliarias, creando en el año 1985 el primer índice de precios de vivienda publicado en España.  

Las empresas del Grupo Sociedad de Tasación ofrecen gran variedad de servicios en el ámbito inmobiliario: tasaciones para mercado hipotecario (ECO), valoraciones RICS, AVM, valoraciones por modelos estadísticos, Asesoramiento en Valor de Carteras, Certificaciones Energéticas, Consultoría Urbanística, Project Monitoring y desarrollos informáticos aplicados al sector inmobiliario. El Grupo tiene presencia en todo el territorio nacional a través de sus 13 delegaciones, 250 empleados y más de 900 profesionales independientes (arquitectos e ingenieros). Puede obtener más información en www.st-tasacion.es.

 

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