Si tuviésemos que abandonar la Tierra no tendríamos a dónde ir

by AS

El profesor titular de Comunicación de la Ciencia en la UWE de Bristol, Dr. Erik Stengler, doctorado en el campo de la cosmología observacional y reconocido divulgador de ciencia, nos atiende desde Inglaterra para hablar sobre el futuro de la humanidad en el espacio. El tema está en boga por estos días: Elon Musk, magnate dueño de la empresa Space X, promete llevar al hombre a Marte tan pronto como el 2023. Sin embargo, hay una serie de implicancias que resolver antes.

N+1: Una de las grandes inquietudes de la humanidad es nuestra supervivencia en la Tierra. Stephen Hawking, afirma que: «la humanidad tiene sus días contados y en 1000 años no se podrá vivir en la Tierra», por lo que la exploración espacial se antoja especialmente importante. ¿Es tan urgente esta partida como apunta el profesor Hawking y en qué momento de la exploración espacial nos encontramos de cara a cumplir los plazos señalados?

Erik: Yo calificaría la exploración espacial como importante más que urgente. Si la principal motivación para ella fuera encontrar un nuevo lugar para vivir para la humanidad, creo que tendríamos la partida ya perdida. Hace unos días, en un foro de ciencia-ficción, hubo comentarios que expresaban cierta decepción en relación con lo que se ha conseguido en cuanto a nuestra presencia del espacio. En efecto, los vaticinios optimistas de los años 80 y 90 no se están cumpliendo: el avance en la exploración espacial está siendo mucho más lento de lo que muchos imaginaron hace unas décadas; en cualquier caso, un traslado de la humanidad a otro planeta llegaría demasiado tarde con respecto a las amenazas a las que se refieren los agoreros de un final de nuestra presencia en la Tierra causado por nuestro propio progreso. Yo prefiero adherirme a las predicciones más halagüeñas como las del profesor Hans Rosling o el Copenhagen Consensus Center. Hans Rosling lleva tiempo recordándonos que el problema de la superpoblación es un mito y que la población de la Tierra se estabilizará en 10 mil millones de habitantes. El Copenhagen Consensus Center se empeña en recordarnos, en contra de las arrolladoras tendencias actuales, que hay problemas mucho más acuciantes que el cambio climático y que globalmente, a pesar de todos los desastres sobre los que oímos continuamente, el cuidado del medio ambiente está yendo a mejor y no a peor, sobre todo gracias a avances tecnológicos. Y es precisamente en el marco del avance de la tecnología que yo calificaría la exploración espacial como importante, como uno de los motores de dicho avance. La superación de retos como los que ésta nos presenta tiene innegablemente un papel motivador y aglutinador importante para la industria y la investigación tecnológica, de la que luego nos beneficiamos todos.

Marte se ha convertido en la primera opción para la conquista humana de otros planetas: Elon Musk promete llegar allá el 2023. ¿A qué se debe este interés más allá de la cercanía con la Tierra?

El interés por Marte como posible destino después de haber llegado a la Luna indudablemente se debe a que es el próximo escalón en la exploración espacial debido a su cercanía a la Tierra. Pero a ello se añaden factores que lo hacen mucho más interesante que, por ejemplo, Júpiter, incluso si éste hubiera estado más cerca que Marte. Y es que Marte tiene unas propiedades que hacen pensar que pudo haber albergado vida en el pasado. Y si ya hubo vida allí una vez, parece más factible que vuelva a haberla, aunque tendría que sufrir una ‘terraformación’ considerable para poder ser un lugar que albergue colonias humanas permanentes. Y es que la vida que pudo haber habido en Marte no tiene por qué haber sido como la conocemos aquí. Puede que nunca hubiera pasado de ser una vida de nivel microbiano. De ahí a ser un lugar donde pueden vivir y prosperar ecosistemas apropiados para que subsistan mamíferos primates superiores como nosotros hay mucho trecho. Habría que transformar el planeta de manera considerable.

Hasta la fecha, ¿Qué misiones se han realizado a Marte y cuáles han sido sus resultados?

Puede que resulte sorprendente, pero ya ha habido 45 misiones a Marte. Desde 1960 la URSS ya estaba intentando enviar sondas al planeta rojo antes incluso de haberse llegado a la Luna. Las primeras misiones con éxito fueron las Mariner y las Mars, que nos proporcionaron unas fotos que en su momento fueron una sensación y una valiosa fuente de información científica sobre la superficie del planeta. Otro hito fueron las naves Viking, que fueron las primeras en posarse sobre su superficie en 1975. Luego hubo que esperar 20 años hasta que la Mars Pathfinder volviera a hacerlo y a reavivar en interés por Marte como destino de la exploración espacial. Además de dos naves que se dirigen hacia allí, ahora mismo hay en funcionamiento 5 satélites artificiales en órbita en torno a Marte y dos vehículos sobre la superficie enviando información muy importante y que en ocasiones ha saltado a la prensa por haber confirmado sucesivamente que hubo agua líquida en Marte y que es posible que siga ahí congelada en el subsuelo, incluso derritiéndose cíclicamente. La cuestión del agua es fundamental, porque tal como conocemos es un elemento esencial para que exista vida y también porque en el hipotético caso de instalarse allí una colonia, supondría una ventaja considerable no tener que llevar agua desde la Tierra.

¿Actualmente, en qué nuevos proyectos están trabajando los científicos de cara a la colonización del planeta rojo?

Hay muchas ideas y propuestas para convertir a Marte en un planeta habitable. Algunas son descabelladas y económicamente inviables, otras son más realistas, pero cada una aborda sólo un aspecto específico del abanico de elementos que habría que controlar en un contexto realista. Si se fuera a llevar a cabo una colonización habría que combinar varias de ellas para resolver los tres problemas fundamentales: (1) la exposición a radiaciones nocivas debido a que Marte no tiene una atmósfera suficientemente densa ni una magnetósfera; (2) la respirabilidad de su atmósfera, debido a que ésta es muy tenue a causa de la baja gravedad que produce el planeta; (3) y los problemas de salud asociados a una gravedad de sólo el 38% de la de la Tierra.

Todas estas propuestas se mueven a nivel de especulaciones y estudios hipotéticos – realmente no hay ningún proyecto propiamente dicho, si entendemos como proyecto un plan concreto con fechas y partidas presupuestarias.

Erik Stengler nos atendió desde Inglaterra.

Erik Stengler nos atendió desde Inglaterra.

¿Cuándo podremos ver bases humanas en Marte?

Esto ya es mucho más plausible y entra en planes más concretos de las diversas agencias espaciales. Tener una base en Marte para realizar investigaciones y sobre todo para probar cómo son las condiciones de vida sobre el planeta son ideas que se barajan y para las cuales ya se han hecho ensayos en Rusia y Estados Unidos, con personas encerradas en cúpulas durante hasta 520 días para observar las consecuencias del confinamiento y la convivencia de varios astronautas en un espacio muy limitado. Las fechas se han ido retrasando una y otra vez –contribuyendo al pesimismo en los aficionados al espacio que mencionaba al principio – y ahora la NASA afirma que habrá un lanzamiento tripulado hacia Marte en 2024. Esta fecha depende del éxito de varias misiones previas que prepararían el terreno y llevarían recursos y tecnología que los astronautas necesitarían para instalarse. Vale aclarar que esta misión sería de sólo ida, sin que esté previsto el regreso de estas personas, sino más bien que se queden allí. Dependerán totalmente de que desde la Tierra se les sigan enviando suministros.

¿Cómo imagina usted el futuro de la humanidad en relación a la conquista del espacio, comenzando por Marte?

Como decía al principio, yo me imagino –y deseo—un futuro en el que la ciencia y la tecnología hayan conseguido resolver los principales problemas que parecen amenazar nuestra subsistencia en el planeta y en el que la humanidad siga dando pasos en la exploración del espacio, no por una necesidad de abandonar la Tierra, sino como consecuencia, como siempre ha sido, del espíritu inquisitivo y descubridor del ser humano. Cuando la civilización occidental se puso rumbo a América no fue porque en Europa no se pudiera vivir, sino porque hubo personas con inquietudes y deseos de expandir horizontes y descubrir nuevas tierras. También deseo que, a diferencia del caso de la colonización del continente americano, en el caso del espacio seamos capaces de no llevar con nosotros nuestras ridículas rivalidades y conflictos y que la conquista del espacio y la explotación de sus recursos –por qué no – se realicen de un modo pacífico, colaborativo y racional, como parece que se ha ensayado con éxito hasta el momento con la estación espacial internacional ISS.

FUENTE ORIGINAL: nmas1.org

 

 

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