“Presupuestos sociopolíticos posibles del panorama español”

Por Jesús Millán Muñoz.

Cada vez, tengo más la convicción más profunda, sea cierta o no, que en los terrenos de la política y de la economía, de la sociopolítica y economía, los ciudadanos, como yo, el pueblo del que yo formo parte, sea más culto o menos culto, apenas se entera de nada, o dicho de otro modo, que yo, que estoy preocupado bastante de lo que sucede en estos momentos, no soy consciente, apenas sé casi nada de lo que sucede de verdad. Incluso aunque esté publicando artículos periodísticos, no sobre política, pero si sobre filosofía política, en gran medida.

Y eso, lleva a tener una sensación de incógnita y misterio, que puede suceder tal cosa o tal otra, sin saber averiguar, ni siquiera tener indicios suficientes de lo que está sucediendo o lo que podría materializarse, pero no a diez años, ni siquiera a dos o tres años, y en estos momentos, en algunos temas, ni siquiera en unos meses.

Por tanto:

– Presupuestos:

1º Cinco partidos nacionales, más al menos entre cinco y siete regionales en el Parlamento Nacional.

2º Fuerzas secesionistas enormemente fuertes y con voluntad de secesionar el país.

3º Fuerzas no moderadas, de un color o de otro, que intentan llevar a la sociedad hacia una dirección u otra, pero no moderada, no consensuada.

– Consecuencias:

Por lo cual, el resultado posible, no sé qué grado de probabilidad, ¿es que el Estado Español se divida en varios Estados, si no de hecho, si de facto, una forma confederal intermedia, para de ese modo, solventar todas las apariencias ante Europa, y seguir dentro de Europa, pero de hecho siendo Estados ya casi independientes, y cuándo dentro de equis tiempo, otra generación, veinte o treinta años, les interese, pues se marchan, y si no siguen presionando?

¿Segunda conclusión, cuándo suceda lo más posible, aunque no sé el grado de probabilidad la anterior hipótesis, grandes zonas del Estado quedarán en una situación límite, se reducirá gravemente el estado del bienestar y los servicios sociales, en un plazo medio de tiempo, por lo cual, las personas votarán a entidades sociopolíticas, no moderadas, sean de un color o sean de otro…? ¿Sin contar la enorme debilidad en todos los aspectos y frentes, que se quedará la Península Ibérica a nivel de varios Estados de hecho o derecho o de facto, por lo cual, los grandes servicios del Estado no podrá hacerlos de forma eficiente, ni a nivel interior, ni exterior, ni seguridad, ni defensa, ni inteligencia, ni servicios sociales, etc.?

¿En ambos horizontes posibles, que se están produciendo combinándose, por un lado, la presión de las fuerzas secesionistas, y por otro, la presión de las fuerzas no moderadas, de un color o de otro, entonces, la estructura de la sociedad y del Estado, no soportará las grandes presiones internas del mismo sistema, sin contar las que pueden venir de fuera, y posiblemente, no sé en qué grado de probabilidad, el Estado español se debilitará enormemente, si no llega a otros niveles de realidad o de decadencia, o de contradicción interna…?

¿Por lo cual, no es solo posible, sino probable, que el Estado español se divida a un plazo medio de tiempo, cinco o diez años, en varios Estados, y al mismo tiempo, varios de esos Estados, o algunos de ellos, tomen el poder de forma democrática, posiciones sociopolíticas no moderadas, sean de un color o sean de otro…?

¿Lo primero, puede ser, en sentido estricto, formándose y conformándose Estados en sí, o siendo una federación dentro del Estado, pero en la práctica serían Estados autónomos e independientes y no autonomías dentro del Estado; y lo segundo, tomarían el poder, combinándose con otras fuerzas sociopolíticas más moderadas, pero quienes regirían los destinos serían las no moderadas…?

– Esperanza posible:

¿Ciertamente, la esperanza, que nos queda, es que el pueblo español, alcance más madurez en los próximos semanas, cosa que hay que dudarlo, pero es preciso esperar, y que Europa, especialmente, Alemania y Francia, y también Estado Unidos, ponga sentido común o racionalidad o prudencia o mesura en todo, porque si no, esto se puede salir de los esquemas y de las hojas de ruta y terminar en contradicciones enormes, en presiones enormes internas y externas, con consecuencias imprevisibles…, pero no buenas, ni positivas…?

¿Segundo que las fuerzas moderadas y constitucionalistas, pacten antes de las elecciones, que el presidente de gobierno sería el más votado en votos a nivel nacional, y el resto de fuerzas moderadas, explícita o implícitamente les apoyaría en todo o en casi todo?

– Conclusión:

Por lo cual, escriba lo que escriba no sirve para nada, no tiene sentido que continúe escribiendo artículos periodísticos de filosofía política, igual que en un momento determinado, sin querer compararme con ellos, Unamuno y Ortega se dieron cuenta que no pintaban nada en las Cortes. Por tanto, mientras que las elites, todas las elites, no vuelvan al sentido común y a la racionalidad, y el pueblo, todo el pueblo también, hasta ese momento no hay solución racional…

Al final, lo que estoy proponiendo, según los datos e informaciones que dispongo, coincide un planeamiento similar del señor Guerra, si no lo he malinterpretado…

Y cómo esto parece que es muy difícil, lo único que puedo hacer, es callarme y silenciarme… ¡Dejar de escribir artículos, dejar de pensar tanto en la realidad sociopolítica, y solo ser un mero observador, y soportar lo que tenga que venir, que es de muchos modos y maneras imprevisible, y esperar que los análisis anteriores que he realizado sean erróneos y equivocados, y esperar que todo se enderece…! ¡Paz y bien…!

http://youtube.com/jmm caminero     © jmm caminero

 

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